Trump’s Path to 1237: Post New York

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Trumpian forces scored a huge victory in NY yesterday netting Trump 90 of the 95 delegates available. As you know I predicted 85 for him last time around. Im making a new round of projections now after the YUUUGE win. Ill make one prediction for next tuesday and then two predictions for the next contests. One for the worst case scenario and one I think is plausible. Currently Trump has 846 delegates. It should be pointed out as well that the NY primary should have been bad for Trump as you had to be registered as a Republican 6 months prior preventing any of the new people Trump brings into the party from participating. Video in MSNBC also show democrats attempting to switch to Republican to vote for Trump on the day of but of course were denied.

SUPER SUPER TUESDAY (how many have we had already?)

Trump is of course leading all the polls for the states next Tuesday. I see another very good night for him. Here are my projections.

PA – 17 – Every poll ive seen so far has him winning. The unbound delegates are a pain but at least 17 is sure.

Deleware – 16 – He should win here as well given he has won in the area

Maryland – 32 – Im giving him the win but calling 2 districts for other people like WI

CT – 21 – Same logic calling 2 districts for kasich to be on the safe side.

Were at 943 after Super Tuesday

Worse Case Scenario

In this scenario I just give Trump 40% of proportional races and let him lose most winner take all states except for NJ which I believe he wins based on polling.

NJ – 51 – winner take all

CA – 70 – just gave him 40% of the available delegates.

NM – 10 – 40% again

WA – 17 – 40% again

OR – 12 – 40% again

Indiana – 24 – im giving the win to Cruz despite projections from sites like fivethirtyeight and giving trump some delegates.

WV – 23 – giving trump the win plus some delegates. fivethirty eight projects him to sweep here.

nebraska South Dakota Montana – projecting 0

Total 1150. Ive already stated before that he gets 1150 -1300 and that if he is this close they will give it to him. A number of PA delegates have already said that they will vote for the winner of their district.

Plausible Scenario

I try to incorporate some other experts that show Trump can get higher than 40% in some instances.

NJ – 51 – still calling a win

CA – 94 – going by other expert predictions

WV – 34 – still going by experts

Oregon – 13 – 40% rounded up

Washington – 18 – 40% rounded up

New mexico – 10 – 40% rounded up

Indiana – 36 expert predictions

Ending at 1199.

Trump either has to get higher than 40% in some of the proportional states which is a possibility because he has gotten more than 40% in some nationwide polls or he has to win Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, or overperform in CA to get the 1237 cleanly. Of course I still think at 1199 they just give it to him.

 

 

 

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