There is No World War 3

th (2).jpg

Since the start of his Presidency Democrats and some Neocon republicans have been stating that Trump will start World War 3 with his tweets and behavior. This is false and an outright lie.

None of the facts around the world geopolitical situation call for a World War. It would even be difficult to imagine the tweets causing an escalation that could lead to a World War. For us to accept that this is true then we would have to accept that all the major players in the world such as China, US, RUssia, etc make their decisions based on hurt feelings in tweets instead of cold calculated national interest.

World War 1 and 2

There is a key component missing in todays political situation when we compare it to the events leading up to both previous world wars. In both instances the central powers and the axis countries both believed that they had a chance of winning. They believed that they had at the very least military parity with their opponents. That situation does not apply today.

If any war were to start the US would have complete and total control of all oceans. Every single coastal city controlled by the enemy would be reduced to rubble. Please note that these coastal cities are usually the most economically valuable areas in any country. Any country that would participate in the new world war would face immediate financial ruin. Even China acknowledges this which is why they are pushing very hard for their land based new silk road trade route.

The United States armed forces are actually very good in conventional battle. They managed to take apart the Iraqi army in less than a month which was the fourth largest army in the world at that time. It only suffers against insurgencies as it was never designed to fight that kind of war. Any “world war” would be closer to conventional warfare than one against an insurgency.

Geopolitically the rest of the world would never unite against the US. In the middle east Iran and Saudi Arabia would always be on different sides. In Europe Russia and the EU would be on opposite sides. In Asia China would be on one side while almost all the other countries would be on the other. Due to the national interests of these nations there is very little chance they would band together no matter what Trump tweets. This means the US will always have half the world as its allies.

China

China is the second largest economic and military power in the world. A major reason why a world war would be impossible right now is that they do not want one. Ask yourself this. Why would they want one? Given the current status quo they are already making great strides in catching up to the US. They may even be able to replace the current American worldwide hegemony with a Chinese one in this century. On a side note if you believe that America is a racist country you will be amazed at what the Chinese will do.

In a recent interview Bannon said that if nothing changes in the next 30 years the American Hegemony would be transitioning to a Chinese one. Intelligence reports have also stated that the Chinese are rising as the greatest threat to the US world order. The Chinese have incentive to keep the status quo going as they are winning in it. A world war would be one of the few things that can actually derail China’s ascendancy.

Fearmongers

As we can see there is absolutely no basis for any World War 3 scenario yet “foreign policy experts” usually of Democrat or NeverTrumper affiliation predict that Trump will start World War 3. These people should either provide a scenario where this will happen or lose their credentials.

 

3 thoughts on “There is No World War 3

Add yours

  1. While you make some interesting points, your analysis leaves out North Korea and nuclear proliferation which is the scenario all the fearmongers mention. That’s the point you need to rebut.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: