With the Trump-Russia narrative dying a well deserved death it is time to acknowledge reality. Despite rhetoric that is friendly to Russia, mainly because Trump is attempting to use Russia as a counterbalance to China which he views as the real threat, the policies Trump implements are actually very harmful to Russia. There really is no comparison to the previous administration where Russia and its allies were allowed to get away with murder.
The Russian economy is dependent on oil and natural gas. If the prices for these are high then Russia does better and if its low then they do worse. By encouraging American companies to drill for oil and produce natural gas President Trump increases the supply of these products in the market. The more supply of something the lower its price weakening the Russian economy.
There are two main factions in the Middle East. The Sunni camp headed by Saudi Arabia and the Shia camp headed by Iran. Since there are always fewer Shia states than Sunni states the Sunni states that want to replace Saudi Arabia or break away from their group tend to side with the Shia as well. Historically the Sunni bloc has sided with the US while the Shia block has sided with Russia.
President Trump has given the Saudis leeway to use any and all methods to go after Iran which is why we are seeing the diplomatic situation in Qatar. Qatar and Iran share the worlds largest natural gas field which the Iranian economy is dependent upon. The Saudis and the other Sunni nations in the region have blockaded them in an effort to end that relationship crippling Iran’s economy and invalidating Russia’s principal ally in the region.
Please note that with the Iran deal Obama actually strengthened Iran and by extension Russia in the region.
Most left leaning analysts would insist that Trump has weakened Europe and Nato against Russia. These analysts refuse to acknowledge one thing that most American citizens, whether Democrats or Republicans, know. The US does not have the willpower to fight another war. Make no mistake it has the technical capability to do so. The fact is 15 years of unending war in the Middle East have driven war exhaustion so high that the public will not support any future wars. Even if we pull out from the Middle East completely tomorrow it would still take some time for public sentiment to recover.
This is not lost on Putin and other world leaders. This is why he was confident he would face no military retaliation when he went after Crimea. By forcing the European countries to rearm themselves President Trump is creating a Europe which can defend itself against Russian aggression even without US support. Even with the example of Crimea Europe refuses to prepare for this and have to be forced to do so. A strong Europe is the best deterrent against Russia.
The Trump-Russia narrative is not only fake news it does not make logical sense as Trump is weakening Russia with every move.
Here is a series of questions that liberals have never been able to answer about their Russian conspiracy theories.
Why is Trump pushing oil and natural gas?
This is actually the biggest one. Russia relies on oil and natural gas for its economy. In fact it would not be an understatement to say that this is the biggest weakness of Russia. Any major reduction in price would be enough to trigger an economic downturn in Russia. If Trump were a Russian puppet why would he increase production of oil and natural gas by the US? Economics would say that the more supply in the market the lower the price gets. Would it not be more beneficial for Russia if the US were to decrease production increasing the price of oil and gas?
Why is Trump speaking out against refugees in Europe ?
The biggest event to destabilize Europe in recent memory was not the election of Trump, Farage and brexit, or even the Grecian debt crisis. It was Merkel inviting millions of savages from the middle east to settle in Europe. This completely overwhelmed border countries who were not in great shape to begin with and even caused a backlash of independence movements across the continent demanding to withdraw from the EU culminating in the UK actually voting to leave. For single handedly inflicting the greatest crisis the EU faced upon itself Merkel was lauded by the liberal world order. If Trump wanted to help Putin by destroying the EU would it not be simpler for Trump to let the situation continue by praising Merkel? After all the refugee crisis has made the EU so weak that it has to bow to the demands or face them releasing their refugee hordes. Instead Trump tells Europe they are hurting themselves by welcoming so many Muslims.
Why is Trump insisting that NATO countries increase defense spending?
Forget about the border countries. Most of them like Estonia are already hitting the target and the rest are too small to matter. In any case their spending is trending up. The real military power in continental Europe would lie within Germany and France. They have the economy necessary to equip a force that can stand up to the Russians and more importantly their spending for defence is trending down. If Trump was a Russian puppet would it not be easier to let the European armies stagnate so the Russians can march into Berlin again?
Just a simple post for today. I want this to be as black and white as possible. I will try and add more countries as I can.
NATO is a treaty which requires that each member nation spend at least 2% of GDP on national defense.
The last time Germany spent 2% of GDP was in 1992
The last time Belgium spent 2% of GDP was in 1991
The last time Denmark spent 2% of GDP was in 1990.
The last time Canada spent 2% of GDP was 1988
The last time Netherlands spent 2% of GDP was 1993
The last time Spain spent 2% of GDP was before 1985
The last time Luxemburg spent 2% of GDP was before 1985
Italy has spent 2% of GDP 2 times in the last 25 years
The last time the Czech Republic spent 2% of the GDP was 1994
Before anyone freaks out about the US abandoning its leadership role we are not even discussing modifications of nato yet. We are just looking at the countries involved living up to the agreement they signed on to.
Just as a comparison in 2015 the US gave 75% of the NATO budget. The following are also what the US spent on defense as % of the gdp.
Trump 2016? 🙂