What if? Afghanistan

In the Marvel Universe there is a new show called What if? It features the Watcher, Uatu, narrating about certain changes done in the multiverse that would change how history would play out. The show has three episodes but the comic book has been going on for decades with such scenarios such as Spidey joining the Fantastic Four to Norman Osborn gaining the Infinity Gauntlet.

Today I try to ask What if? What single thing could President Biden have done to change the course of history. One of the critical rules of alternative history is that the characters stay as they are now. Captain America will always be honest and upright. Thor, brash and headstrong. Tony Stark, an eccentric genius. And Biden will be Biden.

Bagram Air Base

One thing you will immediately notice about the comic is that the event that changed history usually takes place a long time before the event itself. For example in the second episode the event that changed Tchalla’s life from the path of Black Panther to the path of Ravager happens during his childhood.

Armchair generals on both sides will usually claim that we should not have let Bagram go. We should have held it and it would have made evacuation easier. I contend that it would not matter whether or not we had Bagram. Consider that Bagram is a lot farther from Kabul than HK airport and people are already having a great deal of difficulty getting to HK.

This meant that the military would have to set up some sort of rally point inside the city and ferry people to Bagram using rotorcraft. It is true that Bagram itself would be secure however all that would happen is the terrorists would switch their target toward the rally point we set up in the city leading to greater loss of life.

I am not going to debunk each individual theory. I just did that for Bagram to illustrate that once we got to that point it was too late. The point of inflection would come earlier.

Inflection Point

I could take the easy way out and say Biden should have just evacuated earlier. But that wouldnt be Biden. With the eviction moratorium and other things he has shown that he gets stuff done at the last minute when faced with no other options. In fact with the number of assets (citizens, allies, and equipment) we had on ground on August 14 one begins to wonder if Biden was planning to just pack up everyone in BattleStar Galactica and leave on September 10 all at once.

There is something else he could have changed though. What if? Biden kept the military deadline set by Trump of May 1 instead of substituting it for the political deadline of September 11?

I contend that this single decision would have saved us all the heartache this forced evacuation would have caused and instead allowed us to rescue those we wanted. In fact I would even venture to say that you could not have picked a worse date to go than September 11.

The generals who have knowledge of Afghanistan all say that the country has two seasons. Winter where everyone is essentially locked down due to the harsh weather and fighting season where armies move about. It is generally accepted that fighting season begins in April and ends in October with winter season in the other months.

The May 1 deadline would have meant that we would have been evacuating during the months of March and April. Early enough for the weather to get better and facilitate the withdrawal but without providing enough time for the Taliban to have any significant campaigning done. Remember that only the final push for Kabul took 3 days. The Taliban had to prepare for that using the rest of fighting season. Conversely leaving in September meant that the Taliban could use most of the year to campaign.

Biden may have been dealt a bad hand but his one singular decision to maximize his political gains set us on the path to disaster. This is why Biden bears ultimate responsibility for this fiasco. It is fitting that the campaign that began with replacing a Military Goal (killing Bin Laden and reducing Al Queda) with a political one (nation building) also ends with a Military Goal (May 1 withdrawal) being replaced with a Political One ( September 11 withdrawal).