4d Chess: The Sanctuary State

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In response to President Trump California has declared itself a Sanctuary State. Ready and willing to welcome all the illegal immigrants that can make it to their wide open arms.

Conservatives and nationalists are of course up in arms at the slight. If you are one of them I want to ask you. Why? There is great opportunity in what is happening here. Before I go further let me stipulate that California is already a lost cause. Whatever happens there in the near future the Democrats will still get their 55 electoral votes. It would take something truly drastic for this to shift and this may be it.

Simulation

Let us take a look at the scenario first. What happens when California says it will give sanctuary to illegals while ICE is looking for them in the rest of the country? Illegals like other criminals do not want to be caught so they would most likely head to California. Like other areas in the US California has blue cities and red rural areas.

When illegals make their way to California would they most likely go towards the rural areas or the cities where the jobs are? The smart money would say that they would go to the cities where the majority of the jobs are.

Effects

This is where the magic is. What happens when illegals from all over the country migrate to California? They would of course need jobs and the skills they possess would mean they would create new competition for the lower wage earners of the city. As anyone with a background in economics can tell you the more supply of something, in this case labor, the lower its value drops. This is particularly true in this instance as the replacement labor are illegals who are not bound by minimum wage.

Will they push out those citizens in the cities who currently hold those jobs? For some people that will definitely be the case. Others will hold on to their jobs and the newly moved illegals will have to go without. Either outcome causes dissatisfaction in the city. A good example would be Merkel welcoming all the refugees from the Middle East and Africa causing unrest in Germany leading to her party having its worst election in years.

It does not stop there. All these new people mean that there will be a greater demand for social services. After all the bleeding hearts in California cannot have them starve can they? Since the state cannot cut back on its services this will mean one thing. New taxes. This would normally not be an issue. After all one would just have to deduct whatever new taxes they pay from what they pay the federal government. Wait aren’t we removing the SALT exemption as well? At this point it is worth mentioning that 70% of Americans do not benefit from the SALT exemption as they already opt for the standardized deduction. It is the wealthier residents of California who will be hit. Coincidentally these are also the major donors of the Democrats. This is why Clinton spend so much time in California even if the state was a sure thing.

There are also some other minor points of friction. More people in one area generally means more crime. More people demanding housing means a higher price all while cities in California are having problems because the low wage labor they rely on to service their elites are being priced out of the cities.

The Only Hope

Republicans have no chance of winning California anytime in the near future. Democrats do have a chance to lose it and we should let them. This also lets us claim the moral high ground in the states rights argument. Napoleon once said “Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake”. If the experience Merkel had is anything to go by they are making one right now.

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